Week 14 of the NFL season wasn’t too favorable to us as the Giants got obliterated by the Eagles, and the Seahawks slept-walk through the first couple of series against the Panthers. The last two weeks haven’t gone well for us, but that’s the NFL for ya. Some weeks you win, some weeks, you lose, and the season is a small sample that big swings can make a big difference. For example, after Week 5, we were down just over three units; after Week 11, we were back in the black with over two units of profit. And now, well, we are back in the red. Either way, we must trust the process over the results and hope we can finish the season strong as we did last season — +3.45 units from this week on and that didn’t include a +900 Bengals AFC Championship ticket.
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Last week’s record: 1-2, -2.25 units
Season record: 35-32-3, -2.57 units, -3.3% ROI
Four plays on the card this week, but I have an extra play to keep an eye on, as a quarterback injury is pretty significant there. Either way, I subjectively enjoy the card this week (unlike last week), so hopefully, the objectivity matches up with the subjectivity this week. Let’s get to it.
All odds are fromBetMGM and lock when article is published.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks over 43.5 (-110) (to win 0.5 units)
I was on the Seahawks last week against the Panthers, and I saw their run defense get decimated, and now they have to go up against the 49ers rushing attack? Good luck. Sure, running the ball will keep the clock moving, but consistent offensive success for the 49ers means that the Seahawks will have to throw the ball to keep up, which helps balance the game script. Either way, my model has this over 44 points, but I’m going to reduce some risk because of Brock Purdy’s possible oblique injury.
Worst line to bet: Over 43.5 -110
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings under 48.5 (-110)
The Vikings have been getting a lot of crap for not being as good as their record shows, but a total this high against an anemic Colts offense seems a bit much. The Vikings’ defense is nothing to be afraid of, but I think anyone can look decent against the current version of the Colts offense. On the other side of the ball, the Colts’ defense is good and having a bye to prepare for Kirk Cousins should keep the Vikings out of the end zone enough to come under this number.
There might be a few 49’s out there, so if you can get that, take it. Remember, always shop around for the best price to maximize your profits.
Worst line to bet: Under 48 -110
Cleveland Browns -3 (-110) vs. Baltimore Ravens (to win 0.5 units)
Tyler Huntley is questionable as he’s currently in concussion protocol, so I’ll reduce some risk but if Anthony Brown is the Ravens quarterback, feel free to risk a full unit here, as the Browns should be able to handle the Ravens on both sides of the ball. Deshaun Watson gets another full week of practice which should only help their offense — even if he isn’t the same player from a couple of years ago — and the Browns’ defense can’t be exploited as easily with a third-string quarterback under center. Honestly, I think Browns -3 still has value even if Huntley goes.
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Worst line to bet: Browns -3 -110
Pittsburgh Steelers ML (+115) at Carolina Panthers
My current number has Mitchell Trubisky in for the Steelers, and if Kenny Pickett can return from concussion protocol, my edge only gets bigger here. The Steelers are off a loss to the Ravens, where they couldn’t beat a third-string quarterback, and the Panthers are off a big road win in Seattle, so the spot is pretty favorable. This is a bit of a buy-low spot on the Steelers and selling high on the Panthers. Trubisky moved the ball pretty well against the Ravens, but ultimately, interceptions in the red zone did him in. As for the Panthers’ offense, the dink-and-dunk approach of Sam Darnold has been on tape, and I think the Steelers are going to force him to beat them deep, and that is a recipe for disaster.
Another instance of shopping around is beneficial, as you can find this in the +120/+125 range at a few spots.
Worst line to bet: Steelers ML +110
Lines to watch
Detroit Lions at New York Jets over
If Mike White can go, then I think this is worth a play at anything 45 or better, but with his status unknown, I’m not willing to make this a play.
(Photo of Donovan Peoples-Jones: Nick Cammett / Getty Images)
Austin Mock uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and rate performances in the NFL, college football, MLB and other sports. Follow Austin on Twitter @amock419
