Final thought: Groundhog Day in March as February's patterns carry over (2024)

As we wait for the final winners of Super Tuesday's primaries to be projected, here's where things stand in the races we're tracking:

- California's 16th District: With 57 percent of the expected vote reporting, Democrat Sam Liccardo has 22 percent, Democrat Joe Simitian has 18 percent, Democrat Evan Low has 16 percent and Republican Peter Ohtaki has 13 percent. This is a solid blue district, so we expect two Democrats to advance to the general election.

- California's 20th District: ABC News has projected that Republican Vince Fong (currently at 39 percent with 52 percent of the expected vote counted) will take one of the general-election slots, but the other is still up for grabs between Republican Mike Boudreaux (25 percent) and Democrat Marisa Wood (22 percent).

- California's 22nd District: With 50 percent of the expected vote counted, Republican incumbent David Valadao has 34 percent, Democrat Rudy Salas has 28 percent, Republican Chris Mathys has 22 percent and Democrat Melissa Hurtado has 15 percent. Democrats were afraid of getting shut out of the general election in this swing seat, but that doesn't look likely to happen now.

- California's 31st District: Democrats should maybe be more worried about a lockout in this open, safely Democratic seat. With 70 percent of the expected vote in, Democrat Gil Cisneros has 21 percent, Republican Daniel Martinez has 21 percent and Republican Pedro Casas has 19 percent.

- California's 45th District: ABC News has projected that Republican Rep. Michelle Steel will advance to the general; she has 57 percent of the expected vote with 82 percent reporting. Her November opponent will either be Democrat Derek Tran (16 percent) or Democrat Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (14 percent).

- North Carolina's 8th District: With 97 percent of the expected vote in, Republican Mark Harris is at 30.4 percent, just barely above the threshold to avoid a runoff. The Associated Press has already declared him the winner.

- Texas's 32nd District: Similarly, with 99 percent of the expected vote in, Democrat Julie Johnson is at 50.4 percent, which would just barely be enough to avoid a runoff. If she does face one, it would be against fellow Democrat Brian Williams, who is at 19 percent of the vote.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Good morning! We continue to track the handful of House races that still don't have winners, mostly in California. As a reminder, California votes almost entirely by mail, and while ballots had to be postmarked by March 5, they can arrive as late as March 12 and still count. Therefore, there are still thousands of ballots out there to be counted, so we could be waiting for several days.

In the meantime, though, we can cross one unresolved congressional race off the list: In California's 30th District, ABC News reports that Democrat Laura Friedman and Republican Alex Balekian are projected to advance to the general election in November. The 30th District is the seat that Schiff is leaving behind to run for Senate, and it's safely Democratic, so Friedman, a former film producer and state assemblywoman, should have no problem winning in the fall. The primary result is kind of a lucky break for her, actually, as there was a chance that she was going to face a fellow Democrat like Anthony Portantino or Mike Feuer in November, which would have been a dogfight.

P.S. People with long memories might remember that "Boy Meets World" star Ben Savage was also running for this seat, but he ended up finishing seventh with just 4 percent.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

ABC News is also projecting the general-election candidates in two California House races:

- In the 47th District, Republican Scott Baugh and Democrat Dave Min have advanced out of the top two primary, leaving Democrat Joanna Weiss out in the cold. This is the seat that Democratic Rep. Katie Porter vacated to run for Senate, and it will be tough for Democrats to defend. Some Democrats are worried that Min's DUI arrest last year could drag him down.

- In the 49th District, Democratic Rep. Mike Levin and Republican Matt Gunderson have advanced to the general election. Biden carried this district by 11 points in 2020, so it'll probably stay in Democratic hands, but it's not out of the question that Gunderson could win in the fall.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Catching up on some ABC News race projections that we missed earlier:

- In the Republican primary for North Carolina's 13th District, ABC News projects that Kelly Daughtry and Brad Knott will advance to a May 14 runoff. This is currently a Democratic-held seat, but the GOP legislature redrew it to be safely Republican, so whoever wins the runoff should be a shoo-in in November.

- In the Republican primary for Texas's 12th District, ABC News projects that Craig Goldman and John O'Shea will advance to a May 28 runoff. This is a solidly red open seat currently represented by retiring Rep. Kay Granger.

- And a bit of a surprise in the Republican primary for Texas's 23rd District: incumbent Rep. Tony Gonzales garnered just 45 percent of the vote, forcing him into a runoff with second-place finisher Brandon Herrera. Gonzales was censured by the Texas GOP last year for supporting bipartisan gun legislation in the wake of the shooting in Uvalde, which is in his district. Clearly, the GOP base is still not happy with him.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

In the early primaries and caucuses on the GOP side, a few patterns became clear. Donald Trump marched toward the nomination by winning most groups of Republican primary voters, but Haley proved a bit more competitive in pockets with large numbers of college-educated voters. Trump has expanded his 2016 coalition by winning more voters on the right, which we can see by his strength in places where Ted Cruz did well eight years ago. Haley, meanwhile, competes among moderates. Tonight, that meant dominant wins for Trump across a set of states, from Virginia and North Carolina to Texas and California. Among tonight's states, Virginia's demographics make it more friendly to non-Trump candidates — Rubio almost won it in 2016 — so Haley's failure to breech 40 percent there is yet another sign that she's able to win only a minority faction within today's GOP.

Overall, there isn't much surprise in tonight's Republican presidential results, beyond the question of whether Haley will eke across the 50 percent threshold and so take home all of Vermont's delegates. In part, that reflects the nationalization of presidential politics. In state after state, the same kinds of communities lean towards or away from Trump, so the results follow pretty consistently from a state's demographics and prior voting behavior. That makes for predictable patterns — and a less than surprising Super Tuesday.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor